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How could President-elect Trump affect Australia’s property market?

By November 28, 2016 No Comments

Well, the US election has been a wild ride for all involved and a very interesting spectacle to watch from this side of the globe. Trump is now in, and many experts (and non-experts) are scratching their heads wondering how a gold-plated billionaire-come reality TV star is the next elected president of the US of A.

So, what effect will this have on Australia’s economy, and in turn, the property market? Over the last few weeks, there have been many suggestions on both of these questions. Below we pull together a few different points that we think are worth reading.

It’s clear that one of Trump’s key election policies is boosting the US economy. This will most likely be achieved through a number of initiatives such as:

  • Major infrastructure projects – Increase employment and restart the US manufacturing industry vs. lowering interest rates to encourage consumer spending.
  • An increase in tariffs – Trump has made threats to cancel America’s role in the Trans-Pacific-Partnership. Other existing free trade agreements are also in danger of being stopped, with a rise in tariffs to follow.
  • Lowering US tax rates – Not only will it encourage consumer spending, but may also inspire US corporations to think about bringing back the cash that is currently being held in overseas markets.

The US economy will no doubt regain power if these policies (and others) are effective. One scenario that is posed by experts is that Australia’s economy will need to be managed more carefully due to a weakening $AUD, brought about by an increase in global interest rates and a spike in inflation. While this is good news for Aussie exporters, it is suggested that Chinese demand for resources will suffer.

The impact on home soil is the increase in interest rates will affect the first home buyers market the most because they are more sensitive to rate fluctuations. High end residential and commercial markets will likely be affected as well.

Short term reactions to the election result included a jump in Australian property searches by US IP addresses on realestate.com.au. Google searches for moving to NZ and Australia also spiked, along with the Canadian immigration’s website overloading shortly after the results were confirmed.  Global money markets have reacted positively to the results over the last few weeks, although how the Australian sharemarket behaves as we move into 2017 is generating mixed predictions.

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